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Reach $120M in US snack sales

Crestline Snacks is a fictional company. Sena built this from public market data and the figures in the question.

Simulate how we reach $120M in US net sales within 12 months. The decision: which mix of price, distribution and marketing moves gets us there, given category growth and a rival's protein crisp launch next spring. Here are our monthly US net sales in $M: Apr 2025 7.3, May 2025 7.6, Jun 2025 7.9, Jul 2025 8.0, Aug 2025 7.8, Sep 2025 7.4, Oct 2025 7.6, Nov 2025 8.0, Dec 2025 8.5, Jan 2026 7.5, Feb 2026 7.3, Mar 2026 7.8, Apr 2026 7.8, May 2026 8.1, Jun 2026 8.4, Jul 2026 8.5, Aug 2026 8.3, Sep 2026 7.9. The target is $120M over the next 12 months (Oct 2026 to Sep 2027).

The 18 months of net sales you provided are the actuals. The trend is fitted at about 6.8% a year, and I left out seasonality because 1.5 cycles is too few to support it.

Simulation · US net sales, 12-month horizon Which mix of price, distribution and marketing moves gets US net sales to $120M in 12 months, given category growth and a rival's protein crisp launch next spring

Target $10.0M a month by Nov 2027 On target

Your actions Added spend $10.0M a year

List price change +8.0% +$400K a year. Net list price move vs today. Adds revenue per bag, loses some volume.Distribution expansion +20% +$8.0M a year. Grocery, mass and club stores added, as % of today's footprintMarketing and trade promotion spend 1.06x +$1.6M a year. Combined media and trade promo spend vs today's level (each extra dollar does a bit less)

Outside assumptions

Rival protein crisp launch impact 4.0% of protein crisp sales lost The rival launch from Apr 2027 takes about 4% off Crestline's protein crisp salesBetter-for-you salty snack category growth 5.0% per year The US better-for-you salty snack category grows about 5% a yearRetailer price pass-through lag 2.0 months Retailers take about 2 months to pass a price increase through to the shelf